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28 février 2006 à 21:02:28
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Posté par DavidManise

Salut !

Bon...  suite aux dernières infos sur la grippe aviaire, je gamberge.  Sans tomber dans la parano, je suis bien du genre à commencer à me préparer tout doucement et calmement.  Au pire, j'aurai des réserves... ::)

Donc voilà.  J'imagine le pire.  Ça n'est en rien une série de prédictions...  juste mes réflexions sur le sujet.

Si je devais faire passer trois mois en autarcie à ma petite famille...  il me faudrait quoi ?

Première réaction : tain c'est LONG trois mois sans ravitaillement...  

Seconde réaction : bon, je dois éviter les contacts avec des humains et des oiseaux, mais ça ne veut pas dire que je ne peux pas aller faire des tours dans les bois...  Ouf.  Pression qui retombe...  solutions de replis trouvées instantanément.

Troisième réaction : De quoi on aurait besoin... ?

Énergie : du gaz pour la cuisinière (et un tuyau et détendeur en rabe), du bois pour le poêle à bois...  ça couvre les besoins pour la cuisson et l'eau chaude si pas d'électricité.  Pour l'instant, on en est à une bouteille par mois environs...  donc trois bouteilles plus une de marge de sécurité : quatre bouteilles de gaz.  Le bois, j'en ai un peu en rabe, et il y en a plein la forêt, au pire...

Manquerait aussi un peu d'électricité pour avoir au moins la radio et pour alimenter les frontales...  Donc des piles.  Pas mal de piles.  J'ai aussi une vieille batterie de bagnole qui pourrait très bien faire tourner une radio pendant très longtemps.  Des capteurs solaires, ça serait le top.  Dommage que ça coûte aussi cher.

Eau : bon connaissant la façon dont nos sources (ici au village) sont captées, normalement ça fonctionne sans entretien pendant pas mal de temps.  N'empêche que vaut mieux avoir quelques réserves...  pour ça j'ai mon (gros) stock de bouteilles en rotation.  Ça le fait pour l'eau de boisson, même si l'eau du village devenait impropre à la consommation.  Ajoutons à ça un bon petit filtre maison, et des comprimés de micropur, de quoi faire bouillir, de la javel aussi...  et finalement de l'iode en dernier recours.

Bouffe : ben là...  faudrait faire des menus variés et réalistes (au niveau conservation sans électricité, préparation sans eau, vaisselle minimale, et bien sûr un certain minimum d'équilibre pour la santé...  etc.) pour une ou deux semaines, calculer ce qu'il faut pour les concocter, et puis multiplier tout ça par 6 ou 12...  et se laisser une marge.  Ouille.  Aussi prévoir des trucs qui ne requièrent AUCUNE préparation ni vaisselle, plus un stock d'assiettes en carton, de couverts en plastoc, etc.  Plus un petit stock de café, thé, sucre, sel, farine, etc, etc.  Ça en fait, des merdes !!!

Médocs : en confinement total, on risque pas d'être malades très souvent, mais bon...  faudra prévoir des trucs pour soigner d'éventuelles blessures à la maison, etc.  Parce que les hopitaux et les bureaux de médecins seraient à mon avis des lieux à haut risque pendant une pandémie.  Donc HE, et plein d'autres trucs encore...  heureusement je suis plutôt bien garni de ce côté là.  Et la forêt fournit le reste.

Hygiène : un savon d'Alep ça dure bien deux mois ;)  C'est cool ça.  J'en ai déjà pour un an d'avance...  Par contre les couches pour la pitchounelle, les serviettes hygiéniques pour la grandette, le PQ, ces machins là...  on peut stocker pas mal.  Trois mois, c'est pas encore trop trop horrible.  Mais quand-même ça demande pas mal d'espace de stockage...  et une certaine organisation que je n'ai pas <rire>

Ajoutons à ça pas mal de javel (style un gros bidon de 20L d'hypochlorite de sodium à 9,6%), du liquide vaisselle, et divers produits d'entretien (vinaigre d'alcool, bicarbonate de soude, HE de citron, etc.).

Réparation et entretien : Si un tuyau pète, ou si un carreau est cassé, ou si il y a une fuite au toit, faudra bien réparer...  Bon j'ai évidemment quelques outils de base, et des clous, du duct tape en quantité, des bâches, et plein d'imagination ;)

Voili...  

J'oublie très certainement plein de trucs.  C'est juste une ébauche de réflexion...  et d'analyse budgétaire.  Faut voir les vraies priorités, trouver des trucs pour réduire les coûts, et étaler...  sinon la solution peut vite devenir pire que le mal ;)

Attention : pas de paranoia SVP.  Don't worry be ready, comme dit Fred.  C'est tout.

Ciao ;)

David

28 février 2006 à 21:24:08
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Posté par ambrose

Bonjour à tous !
J'ai lu ton message David, et je vais te paraître vieux jeu mais j'ai repensé à nos anciens.
Durant the world war two, ils ont fait des réserves de farine, de sucre, de conserves quand c'était possible. Manque plus que des oeufs pour faire de bons gâteaux.

28 février 2006 à 21:40:11
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Posté par guillaume

Tu tombes pas du tout dans la parano là David  ::), enfin pour moi tu n'as fais qu'analyser ce que tu avais chez toi en fonction du besoin. Ca montre bien qu'avec un minimum de préparation (la bouf, l'eau...) et une cervelle on met toutes les chances de son côté  :).
a+

28 février 2006 à 21:50:27
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Posté par nico7218

Vraiment pas mal les idées pour prendre des précautions.

28 février 2006 à 22:12:04
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Posté par Maximil

Il faut voir que dans la forêt il y a des oiseaux...
Et puis les chats peuvent l'attraper.

28 février 2006 à 22:17:44
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Posté par survivalfred

Salut,

Bon, si on part avec cette idée de préparation, et elle me paraît la meilleur pour beaucoup de monde, voici quelques idées qui me viennent en tête :

Une bonne réserve de masques en papier style "protection pour peintre" me paraît une idée valable.
Surtout dans les villes ou pour les personnes utilisants les transports en commun.

Dans la même optique une réserve de gants à usage unique est tout aussi utile.

De la javel, beaucoup de javel, le mieux pour en avoir un bon stock c'est d'obtenir des boîtes de pastilles de javel concentrée en grande surface, une patille donne de 10 à 20 litres de javel et il y en a une centaine dans une boîte pour quelques euros.

Et, c'est triste à dire mais : pour vivre heureux, vivons cachés; Pas la peine de diffuser votre préparation à tous vos voisins si vous savez qu'eux ne vont pas vous imiter, quand les blèmes seront là devinez chez qui ils iront sonner ?  :-?

Citer
Parce que les hopitaux et les bureaux de médecins seraient à mon avis des lieux à haut risque pendant une pandémie.

Ouais, merci de me le rappeler, Maximill doit se sentir aussi bien concerné  :-/

J'ai fais remonter le sujet suivant qui est un poil dans la même lignée http://www.davidmanise.com/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1116794099/45

Restons cool mais informés,

Fred

[size=9]PS: J'vais essayer de m'informer sur les anti-viraux efficaces contre le H5N1 et vous tenir au courant si j'ai des infos non encore diffusées ...  :-?[/size]

28 février 2006 à 22:29:55
Réponse #6

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Posté par Maximil

Si le virus mute pour provoquer une pandémie, on ne peut pas savoir dans l'immédiat si un anti-viral sera efficace ou non. Et puis est-ce que le virus sera transmissible par contact (scénario de David correct) ou bien aérien (et là son scénario devient moins efficace malheureusement).
Et à ce que je me souviens, même le meilleur anti-viral devient de moins en moins efficace (cf certains décès en Asie pourtant traités avec du Tamiflu)...

Survival Fred : Hélas, j'habite au coeur même de l'hopital  ::). Et puis je devrais bosser quand même en principe. Et puis l'autre point d'attache c'est Rouen donc c'est pire.
Mais si ca devait tourner au cauchemard (genre 28 jours plus tard) je crois que j'oublierais mon taf, ma formation de secouriste etc... Et puis, l'autre côté, c'est qu'on est aux premières loges pour se soigner ;)

Il y a une chose encore, c'est qu'en cas de problèmes dans ce style, il y aura moins de témoins dans la rue, moins de ronde de police... vous voyez où je veux en venir ? Donc il faut voir aussi ce côté là.




28 février 2006 à 23:05:37
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Posté par bloodyfrog

Moi qui croisait une crise de paranoia aigüe...

Si David craque, je craaaaaque!!!

"Chérie, mets toutes les nouilles du rayon dans la caddie!!!"

 ;) ;D

Manu... qui ferait bien de faire des stocks de sauce aussi... :P

28 février 2006 à 23:14:55
Réponse #8

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Posté par bloodyfrog

Très bon début de réflexion, merci David...

Ca fait un moment que j'avance dans ma préparation, mais j'ai le sentiment aussi qu'il faut que je mette la seconde...

 ;)

Manu.

28 février 2006 à 23:39:53
Réponse #9

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Posté par CAMP

Je balance mes sources (desole c'est en Anglais) ;)

AVIAN INFLUENZA
THE DISEASE IN BIRDS
Avian influenza is an infectious disease of birds caused by type A strains of the influenza virus. The disease occurs worldwide. While all birds are thought to be susceptible to infection with avian influenza viruses, many wild bird species carry these viruses with no apparent signs of harm.
Other bird species, including domestic poultry, develop disease when infected with avian influenza viruses. In poultry, the viruses cause two distinctly different forms of disease – one common and mild, the other rare and highly lethal. In the mild form, signs of illness may be expressed only as ruffled feathers, reduced egg production, or mild effects on the respiratory system. Outbreaks can be so mild they escape detection unless regular testing for viruses is in place.
In contrast, the second and far less common highly pathogenic form is difficult to miss. First identified in Italy in 1878, highly pathogenic avian influenza is characterized by sudden onset of severe disease, rapid contagion, and a mortality rate that can approach 100% within 48 hours. In this form of the disease, the virus not only affects the respiratory tract, as in the mild form, but also invades multiple organs and tissues. The resulting massive internal haemorrhaging has earned it the lay name of “chicken Ebola”.
All 16 HA (haemagluttinin) and 9 NA (neuraminidase) subtypes of influenza viruses are known to infect wild waterfowl, thus providing an extensive reservoir of influenza viruses perpetually circulating in bird populations. In wild birds, routine testing will nearly always find some influenza viruses. The vast majority of these viruses cause no harm.
To date, all outbreaks of the highly pathogenic form of avian influenza have been caused by viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes. Highly pathogenic viruses possess a tell-tale genetic “trade mark” or signature – a distinctive set of basic amino acids in the cleavage site of the HA – that distinguishes them from all other avian influenza viruses and is associated with their exceptional virulence.
Not all virus strains of the H5 and H7 subtypes are highly pathogenic, but most are thought to have the potential to become so. Recent research has shown that H5 and H7 viruses of low pathogenicity can, after circulation for sometimes short periods in a poultry population, mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. Considerable circumstantial evidence has long suggested that wild waterfowl introduce avian influenza viruses, in their low pathogenic form, to poultry flocks, but do not carry or directly spread highly pathogenic viruses. This role may, however, have changed very recently: at least some species of migratory waterfowl are now thought to be carrying the H5N1 virus in its highly pathogenic form and introducing it to new geographical areas located along their flight routes.
Apart from being highly contagious among poultry, avian influenza viruses are readily transmitted from farm to farm by the movement of live birds, people (especially when shoes and other clothing are contaminated), and contaminated vehicles, equipment, feed, and cages. Highly pathogenic viruses can survive for long periods in the environment, especially when temperatures are low. For example, the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus can survive in bird faeces for at least 35 days at low temperature (4oC). At a much higher temperature (37oC), H5N1 viruses have been shown to survive, in faecal samples, for six days.
For highly pathogenic disease, the most important control measures are rapid culling of all infected or exposed birds, proper disposal of carcasses, the quarantining and rigorous disinfection of farms, and the implementation of strict sanitary, or “biosecurity”, measures. Restrictions on the movement of live poultry, both within and between countries, are another important control measure. The logistics of recommended control measures are most straightforward when applied to large commercial farms, where birds are housed indoors, usually under strictly controlled sanitary conditions, in large numbers. Control is far more difficult under poultry production systems in which most birds are raised in small backyard flocks scattered throughout rural or periurban areas.
When culling – the first line of defence for containing outbreaks – fails or proves impracticable, vaccination of poultry in a high-risk area can be used as a supplementary emergency measure, provided quality-assured vaccines are used and OIE recommendations are strictly followed. The use of poor quality vaccines or vaccines that poorly match the circulating virus strain may accelerate mutation of the virus. Poor quality animal vaccines may also pose a risk for human health, as they may allow infected birds to shed virus while still appearing to be disease-free.
Apart from being difficult to control, outbreaks in backyard flocks are associated with a heightened risk of human exposure and infection. These birds usually roam freely as they scavenge for food and often mingle with wild birds or share water sources with them. Such situations create abundant opportunities for human exposure to the virus, especially when birds enter households or are brought into households during adverse weather, or when they share areas where children play or sleep. Poverty exacerbates the problem: in situations where a prime source of food and income cannot be wasted, households frequently consume poultry when deaths or signs of illness appear in flocks. This practice carries a high risk of exposure to the virus during slaughtering, defeathering, butchering, and preparation of poultry meat for cooking, but has proved difficult to change. Moreover, as deaths of birds in backyard flocks are common, especially under adverse weather conditions, owners may not interpret deaths or signs of illness in a flock as a signal of avian influenza and a reason to alert the authorities. This tendency may help explain why outbreaks in some rural areas have smouldered undetected for months. The frequent absence of compensation to farmers for destroyed birds further works against the spontaneous reporting of outbreaks and may encourage owners to hide their birds during culling operations.
THE ROLE OF MIGRATORY BIRDS
During 2005, an additional and significant source of international spread of the virus in birds became apparent for the first time, but remains poorly understood. Scientists are increasingly convinced that at least some migratory waterfowl are now carrying the H5N1 virus in its highly pathogenic form, sometimes over long distances, and introducing the virus to poultry flocks in areas that lie along their migratory routes. Should this new role of migratory birds be scientifically confirmed, it will mark a change in a long-standing stable relationship between the H5N1 virus and its natural wild-bird reservoir.
Evidence supporting this altered role began to emerge in mid-2005 and has since been strengthened. The die-off of more than 6000 migratory birds, infected with the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus, that began at the Qinghai Lake nature reserve in central China in late April 2005, was highly unusual and probably unprecedented. Prior to that event, wild bird deaths from highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses were rare, usually occurring as isolated cases found within the flight distance of a poultry outbreak. Scientific studies comparing viruses from different outbreaks in birds have found that viruses from the most recently affected countries, all of which lie along migratory routes, are almost identical to viruses recovered from dead migratory birds at Qinghai Lake. Viruses from Turkey’s first two human cases, which were fatal, were also virtually identical to viruses from Qinghai Lake.
COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY OUTBREAKS IN BIRDS
The outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza that began in south-east Asia in mid-2003 and have now spread to a few parts of Europe, are the largest and most severe on record. To date, nine Asian countries have reported outbreaks (listed in order of reporting): the Republic of Korea, Viet Nam, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Indonesia, China, and Malaysia. Of these, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia have controlled their outbreaks and are now considered free of the disease. Elsewhere in Asia, the virus has become endemic in several of the initially affected countries.
In late July 2005, the virus spread geographically beyond its original focus in Asia to affect poultry and wild birds in the Russian Federation and adjacent parts of Kazakhstan. Almost simultaneously, Mongolia reported detection of the highly pathogenic virus in wild birds. In October 2005, the virus was reported in Turkey, Romania, and Croatia. In early December 2005, Ukraine reported its first outbreak in domestic birds. Most of these newer outbreaks were detected and reported quickly. Further spread of the virus along the migratory routes of wild waterfowl is, however, anticipated. Moreover, bird migration is a recurring event. Countries that lie along the flight pathways of birds migrating from central Asia may face a persistent risk of introduction or re-introduction of the virus to domestic poultry flocks.
Prior to the present situation, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry were considered rare. Excluding the current outbreaks caused by the H5N1 virus, only 24 outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have been recorded worldwide since 1959. Of these, 14 occurred in the past decade. The majority have shown limited geographical spread, a few remained confined to a single farm or flock, and only one spread internationally. All of the larger outbreaks were costly for the agricultural sector and difficult to control.
THE DISEASE IN HUMANS
History and epidemiology. Influenza viruses are normally highly species-specific, meaning that viruses that infect an individual species (humans, certain species of birds, pigs, horses, and seals) stay “true” to that species, and only rarely spill over to cause infection in other species. Since 1959, instances of human infection with an avian influenza virus have occurred on only 10 occasions. Of the hundreds of strains of avian influenza A viruses, only four are known to have caused human infections: H5N1, H7N3, H7N7, and H9N2. In general, human infection with these viruses has resulted in mild symptoms and very little severe illness, with one notable exception: the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus.
Of all influenza viruses that circulate in birds, the H5N1 virus is of greatest present concern for human health for two main reasons. First, the H5N1 virus has caused by far the greatest number of human cases of very severe disease and the greatest number of deaths. It has crossed the species barrier to infect humans on at least three occasions in recent years: in Hong Kong in 1997 (18 cases with six deaths), in Hong Kong in 2003 (two cases with one death) and in the current outbreaks that began in December 2003 and were first recognized in January 2004.
A second implication for human health, of far greater concern, is the risk that the H5N1 virus – if given enough opportunities – will develop the characteristics it needs to start another influenza pandemic. The virus has met all prerequisites for the start of a pandemic save one: an ability to spread efficiently and sustainably among humans. While H5N1 is presently the virus of greatest concern, the possibility that other avian influenza viruses, known to infect humans, might cause a pandemic cannot be ruled out.
During the first documented outbreak of human infections with H5N1, which occurred in Hong Kong in 1997, the 18 human cases coincided with an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, caused by a virtually identical virus, in poultry farms and live markets. Extensive studies of the human cases determined that direct contact with diseased poultry was the source of infection. Studies carried out in family members and social contacts of patients, health workers engaged in their care, and poultry cullers found very limited, if any, evidence of spread of the virus from one person to another. Human infections ceased following the rapid destruction – within three days – of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population, estimated at around 1.5 million birds. Some experts believe that that drastic action may have averted a pandemic.
All evidence to date indicates that close contact with dead or sick birds is the principal source of human infection with the H5N1 virus. Especially risky behaviours identified include the slaughtering, defeathering, butchering and preparation for consumption of infected birds. In a few cases, exposure to chicken faeces when children played in an area frequented by free-ranging poultry is thought to have been the source of infection. Swimming in water bodies where the carcasses of dead infected birds have been discarded or which may have been contaminated by faeces from infected ducks or other birds might be another source of exposure. In some cases, investigations have been unable to identify a plausible exposure source, suggesting that some as yet unknown environmental factor, involving contamination with the virus, may be implicated in a small number of cases. Some explanations that have been put forward include a possible role of peri-domestic birds, such as pigeons, or the use of untreated bird faeces as fertilizer.
At present, H5N1 avian influenza remains largely a disease of birds. The species barrier is significant: the virus does not easily cross from birds to infect humans. Despite the infection of tens of millions of poultry over large geographical areas for more than two years, fewer than 200 human cases have been laboratory confirmed. For unknown reasons, most cases have occurred in rural and periurban households where small flocks of poultry are kept. Again for unknown reasons, very few cases have been detected in presumed high-risk groups, such as commercial poultry workers, workers at live poultry markets, cullers, veterinarians, and health staff caring for patients without adequate protective equipment. Also lacking is an explanation for the puzzling concentration of cases in previously healthy children and young adults. Research is urgently needed to better define the exposure circumstances, behaviours, and possible genetic or immunological factors that might enhance the likelihood of human infection.
Assessment of possible cases. Investigations of all the most recently confirmed human cases, in China, Indonesia, and Turkey, have identified direct contact with infected birds as the most likely source of exposure. When assessing possible cases, the level of clinical suspicion should be heightened for persons showing influenza-like illness, especially with fever and symptoms in the lower respiratory tract, who have a history of close contact with birds in an area where confirmed outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza are occurring. Exposure to an environment that may have been contaminated by faeces from infected birds is a second, though less common, source of human infection. To date, not all human cases have arisen from exposure to dead or visibly ill domestic birds. Research published in 2005 has shown that domestic ducks can excrete large quantities of highly pathogenic virus without showing signs of illness. A history of poultry consumption in an affected country is not a risk factor, provided the food was thoroughly cooked and the person was not involved in food preparation. As no efficient human-to-human transmission of the virus is known to be occurring anywhere, simply travelling to a country with ongoing outbreaks in poultry or sporadic human cases does not place a traveller at enhanced risk of infection, provided the person did not visit live or “wet” poultry markets, farms, or other environments where exposure to diseased birds may have occurred.
Clinical features 1. In many patients, the disease caused by the H5N1 virus follows an unusually aggressive clinical course, with rapid deterioration and high fatality. Like most emerging disease, H5N1 influenza in humans is poorly understood. Clinical data from cases in 1997 and the current outbreak are beginning to provide a picture of the clinical features of disease, but much remains to be learned. Moreover, the current picture could change given the propensity of this virus to mutate rapidly and unpredictably.
The incubation period for H5N1 avian influenza may be longer than that for normal seasonal influenza, which is around 2 to 3 days. Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from 2 to 8 days and possibly as long as 17 days. However, the possibility of multiple exposure to the virus makes it difficult to define the incubation period precisely. WHO currently recommends that an incubation period of 7 days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts.
Initial symptoms include a high fever, usually with a temperature higher than 38oC, and influenza-like symptoms. Diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain, and bleeding from the nose and gums have also been reported as early symptoms in some patients.
Watery diarrhoea without blood appears to be more common in H5N1 avian influenza than in normal seasonal influenza. The spectrum of clinical symptoms may, however, be broader, and not all confirmed patients have presented with respiratory symptoms. In two patients from southern Viet Nam, the clinical diagnosis was acute encephalitis; neither patient had respiratory symptoms at presentation. In another case, from Thailand, the patient presented with fever and diarrhoea, but no respiratory symptoms. All three patients had a recent history of direct exposure to infected poultry.
One feature seen in many patients is the development of manifestations in the lower respiratory tract early in the illness. Many patients have symptoms in the lower respiratory tract when they first seek treatment. On present evidence, difficulty in breathing develops around 5 days following the first symptoms. Respiratory distress, a hoarse voice, and a crackling sound when inhaling are commonly seen. Sputum production is variable and sometimes bloody. Most recently, blood-tinted respiratory secretions have been observed in Turkey. Almost all patients develop pneumonia. During the Hong Kong outbreak, all severely ill patients had primary viral pneumonia, which did not respond to antibiotics. Limited data on patients in the current outbreak indicate the presence of a primary viral pneumonia in H5N1, usually without microbiological evidence of bacterial supra-infection at presentation. Turkish clinicians have also reported pneumonia as a consistent feature in severe cases; as elsewhere, these patients did not respond to treatment with antibiotics.
In patients infected with the H5N1 virus, clinical deterioration is rapid. In Thailand, the time between onset of illness to the development of acute respiratory distress was around 6 days, with a range of 4 to 13 days. In severe cases in Turkey, clinicians have observed respiratory failure 3 to 5 days after symptom onset. Another common feature is multiorgan dysfunction, notably involving the kidney and heart. Common laboratory abnormalities include lymphopenia, leukopenia, elevated aminotransferases, and mild-to-moderate thrombocytopenia with some instances of disseminated intravascular coagulation.
Limited evidence suggests that some antiviral drugs, notably oseltamivir (commercially known as Tamiflu), can reduce the duration of viral replication and improve prospects of survival, provided they are administered within 48 hours following symptom onset. However, prior to the outbreak in Turkey, most patients have been detected and treated late in the cou

28 février 2006 à 23:43:19
Réponse #10

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Posté par CAMP

ca continue

Limited evidence suggests that some antiviral drugs, notably oseltamivir (commercially known as Tamiflu), can reduce the duration of viral replication and improve prospects of survival, provided they are administered within 48 hours following symptom onset. However, prior to the outbreak in Turkey, most patients have been detected and treated late in the course of illness. For this reason, clinical data on the effectiveness of oseltamivir are limited. Moreover, oseltamivir and other antiviral drugs were developed for the treatment and prophylaxis of seasonal influenza, which is a less severe disease associated with less prolonged viral replication. Recommendations on the optimum dose and duration of treatment for H5N1 avian influenza, also in children, need to undergo urgent review, and this is being undertaken by WHO.
In suspected cases, oseltamivir should be prescribed as soon as possible (ideally, within 48 hours following symptom onset) to maximize its therapeutic benefits. However, given the significant mortality currently associated with H5N1 infection and evidence of prolonged viral replication in this disease, administration of the drug should also be considered in patients presenting later in the course of illness.
Currently recommended doses of oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza are contained in the product information at the manufacturer’s web site. The recommended dose of oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza, in adults and adolescents 13 years of age and older, is 150 mg per day, given as 75 mg twice a day for 5 days. Oseltamivir is not indicated for the treatment of children younger than 1 year of age.
As the duration of viral replication may be prolonged in cases of H5N1 infection, clinicians should consider increasing the duration of treatment to 7 to 10 days in patients who are not showing a clinical response. In cases of severe infection with the H5N1 virus, clinicians may need to consider increasing the recommended daily dose or the duration of treatment, keeping in mind that doses above 300 mg per day are associated with increased side effects. For all treated patients, consideration should be given to taking serial clinical samples for later assay to monitor changes in viral load, to assess drug susceptibility, and to assess drug levels. These samples should be taken only in the presence of appropriate measures for infection control.
In severely ill H5N1 patients or in H5N1 patients with severe gastrointestinal symptoms, drug absorption may be impaired. This possibility should be considered when managing these patients.
COUNTRIES WITH HUMAN CASES IN THE CURRENT OUTBREAK
For the latest information, please see Avian Influenza
To date, human cases have been reported in six countries, most of which are in Asia: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey, and Viet Nam. The first patients in the current outbreak, which were reported from Viet Nam, developed symptoms in December 2003 but were not confirmed as H5N1 infection until 11 January 2004. Thailand reported its first cases on 23 January 2004. The first case in Cambodia was reported on 2 February 2005. The next country to report cases was Indonesia, which confirmed its first infection on 21 July. China’s first two cases were reported on 16 November 2005. Confirmation of the first cases in Turkey came on 5 January 2006. All human cases have coincided with outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in poultry. To date, Viet Nam has been the most severely affected country, with more than 90 cases.
 
Altogether, more than half of the laboratory-confirmed cases have been fatal. H5N1 avian influenza in humans is still a rare disease, but a severe one that must be closely watched and studied, particularly because of the potential this virus to evolve in ways that could start a pandemic.


28 février 2006 à 23:44:57
Réponse #11

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Posté par CAMP

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS:
What is avian influenza?
Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals caused by viruses that normally infect only birds and, less commonly, pigs. Avian influenza viruses are highly species-specific, but have, on rare occasions, crossed the species barrier to infect humans.
In domestic poultry, infection with avian influenza viruses causes two main forms of disease, distinguished by low and high extremes of virulence. The so-called “low pathogenic” form commonly causes only mild symptoms (ruffled feathers, a drop in egg production) and may easily go undetected. The highly pathogenic form is far more dramatic. It spreads very rapidly through poultry flocks, causes disease affecting multiple internal organs, and has a mortality that can approach 100%, often within 48 hours.
Which viruses cause highly pathogenic disease?
Influenza A viruses1 have 16 H subtypes and 9 N subtypes2. Only viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes are known to cause the highly pathogenic form of the disease. However, not all viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes are highly pathogenic and not all will cause severe disease in poultry.
On present understanding, H5 and H7 viruses are introduced to poultry flocks in their low pathogenic form. When allowed to circulate in poultry populations, the viruses can mutate, usually within a few months, into the highly pathogenic form. This is why the presence of an H5 or H7 virus in poultry is always cause for concern, even when the initial signs of infection are mild.
Do migratory birds spread highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses?
The role of migratory birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza is not fully understood. Wild waterfowl are considered the natural reservoir of all influenza A viruses. They have probably carried influenza viruses, with no apparent harm, for centuries. They are known to carry viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes, but usually in the low pathogenic form. Considerable circumstantial evidence suggests that migratory birds can introduce low pathogenic H5 and H7 viruses to poultry flocks, which then mutate to the highly pathogenic form.
In the past, highly pathogenic viruses have been isolated from migratory birds on very rare occasions involving a few birds, usually found dead within the flight range of a poultry outbreak. This finding long suggested that wild waterfowl are not agents for the onward transmission of these viruses.
Recent events make it likely that some migratory birds are now directly spreading the H5N1 virus in its highly pathogenic form. Further spread to new areas is expected.
What is special about the current outbreaks in poultry?
The current outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which began in South-east Asia in mid-2003, are the largest and most severe on record. Never before in the history of this disease have so many countries been simultaneously affected, resulting in the loss of so many birds.
The causative agent, the H5N1 virus, has proved to be especially tenacious. Despite the death or destruction of an estimated 150 million birds, the virus is now considered endemic in many parts of Indonesia and Viet Nam and in some parts of Cambodia, China, Thailand, and possibly also the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Control of the disease in poultry is expected to take several years.
The H5N1 virus is also of particular concern for human health, as explained below.
Which countries have been affected by outbreaks in poultry?
From mid-December 2003 through early February 2004, poultry outbreaks caused by the H5N1 virus were reported in eight Asian nations (listed in order of reporting): the Republic of Korea, Viet Nam, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Indonesia, and China. Most of these countries had never before experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in their histories.
In early August 2004, Malaysia reported its first outbreak of H5N1 in poultry, becoming the ninth Asian nation affected. Russia reported its first H5N1 outbreak in poultry in late July 2005, followed by reports of disease in adjacent parts of Kazakhstan in early August. Deaths of wild birds from highly pathogenic H5N1 were reported in both countries. Almost simultaneously, Mongolia reported the detection of H5N1 in dead migratory birds. In October 2005, H5N1 was confirmed in poultry in Turkey and Romania. Outbreaks in wild and domestic birds are under investigation elsewhere.
Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia have announced control of their poultry outbreaks and are now considered free of the disease. In the other affected areas, outbreaks are continuing with varying degrees of severity.
What are the implications for human health?
The widespread persistence of H5N1 in poultry populations poses two main risks for human health.
The first is the risk of direct infection when the virus passes from poultry to humans, resulting in very severe disease. Of the few avian influenza viruses that have crossed the species barrier to infect humans, H5N1 has caused the largest number of cases of severe disease and death in humans. Unlike normal seasonal influenza, where infection causes only mild respiratory symptoms in most people, the disease caused by H5N1 follows an unusually aggressive clinical course, with rapid deterioration and high fatality. Primary viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure are common. In the present outbreak, more than half of those infected with the virus have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults.
A second risk, of even greater concern, is that the virus – if given enough opportunities – will change into a form that is highly infectious for humans and spreads easily from person to person. Such a change could mark the start of a global outbreak (a pandemic).
Where have human cases occurred?
In the current outbreak, laboratory-confirmed human cases have been reported in four countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Hong Kong has experienced two outbreaks in the past. In 1997, in the first recorded instance of human infection with H5N1, the virus infected 18 people and killed 6 of them. In early 2003, the virus caused two infections, with one death, in a Hong Kong family with a recent travel history to southern China.
How do people become infected?
Direct contact with infected poultry, or surfaces and objects contaminated by their faeces, is presently considered the main route of human infection. To date, most human cases have occurred in rural or periurban areas where many households keep small poultry flocks, which often roam freely, sometimes entering homes or sharing outdoor areas where children play. As infected birds shed large quantities of virus in their faeces, opportunities for exposure to infected droppings or to environments contaminated by the virus are abundant under such conditions. Moreover, because many households in Asia depend on poultry for income and food, many families sell or slaughter and consume birds when signs of illness appear in a flock, and this practice has proved difficult to change. Exposure is considered most likely during slaughter, defeathering, butchering, and preparation of poultry for cooking.
Is it safe to eat poultry and poultry products?
Yes, though certain precautions should be followed in countries currently experiencing outbreaks. In areas free of the disease, poultry and poultry products can be prepared and consumed as usual (following good hygienic practices and proper cooking), with no fear of acquiring infection with the H5N1 virus.
In areas experiencing outbreaks, poultry and poultry products can also be safely consumed provided these items are properly cooked and properly handled during food preparation. The H5N1 virus is sensitive to heat. Normal temperatures used for cooking (70oC in all parts of the food) will kill the virus. Consumers need to be sure that all parts of the poultry are fully cooked (no “pink” parts) and that eggs, too, are properly cooked (no “runny” yolks).
Consumers should also be aware of the risk of cross-contamination. Juices from raw poultry and poultry products should never be allowed, during food preparation, to touch or mix with items eaten raw. When handling raw poultry or raw poultry products, persons involved in food preparation should wash their hands thoroughly and clean and disinfect surfaces in contact with the poultry products Soap and hot water are sufficient for this purpose.
In areas experiencing outbreaks in poultry, raw eggs should not be used in foods that will not be further heat-treated as, for example by cooking or baking.
Avian influenza is not transmitted through cooked food. To date, no evidence indicates that anyone has become infected following the consumption of properly cooked poultry or poultry products, even when these foods were contaminated with the H5N1 virus.
Does the virus spread easily from birds to humans?
No. Though more than 100 human cases have occurred in the current outbreak, this is a small number compared with the huge number of birds affected and the numerous associated opportunities for human exposure, especially in areas where backyard flocks are common. It is not presently understood why some people, and not others, become infected following similar exposures.
What about the pandemic risk?
A pandemic can start when three conditions have been met: a new influenza virus subtype emerges; it infects humans, causing serious illness; and it spreads easily and sustainably among humans. The H5N1 virus amply meets the first two conditions: it is a new virus for humans (H5N1 viruses have never circulated widely among people), and it has infected more than 100 humans, killing over half of them. No one will have immunity should an H5N1-like pandemic virus emerge.
All prerequisites for the start of a pandemic have therefore been met save one: the establishment of efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus. The risk that the H5N1 virus will acquire this ability will persist as long as opportunities for human infections occur. These opportunities, in turn, will persist as long as the virus continues to circulate in birds, and this situation could endure for some years to come.
What changes are needed for H5N1 to become a pandemic virus?
The virus can improve its transmissibility among humans via two principal mechanisms. The first is a “reassortment” event, in which genetic material is exchanged between human and avian viruses during co-infection of a human or pig. Reassortment could result in a fully transmissible pandemic virus, announced by a sudden surge of cases with explosive spread.
The second mechanism is a more gradual process of adaptive mutation, whereby the capability of the virus to bind to human cells increases during subsequent infections of humans. Adaptive mutation, expressed initially as small clusters of human cases with some evidence of human-to-human transmission, would probably give the world some time to take defensive action.
What is the significance of limited human-to-human transmission?
Though rare, instances of limited human-to-human transmission of H5N1 and other avian influenza viruses have occurred in association with outbreaks in poultry and should not be a cause for alarm. In no instance has the virus spread beyond a first generation of close contacts or caused illness in the general community. Data from these incidents suggest that transmission requires very close contact with an ill person. Such incidents must be thoroughly investigated but – provided the investigation indicates that transmission from person to person is very limited – such incidents will not change the WHO overall assessment of the pandemic risk. There have been a number of instances of avian influenza infection occurring among close family members. It is often impossible to determine if human-to-human transmission has occurred since the family members are exposed to the same animal and environmental sources as well as to one another.
How serious is the current pandemic risk?
The risk of pandemic influenza is serious. With the H5N1 virus now firmly entrenched in large parts of Asia, the risk that more human cases will occur will persist. Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmissibility in humans, and thus develop into a pandemic strain. The recent spread of the virus to poultry and wild birds in new areas further broadens opportunities for human cases to occur. While neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted, the probability that a pandemic will occur has increased.
Are there any other causes for concern?
Yes. Several.
• Domestic ducks can now excrete large quantities of highly pathogenic virus without showing signs of illness, and are now acting as a “silent” reservoir of the virus, perpetuating transmission to other birds. This adds yet another layer of complexity to control efforts and removes the warning signal for humans to avoid risky behaviours.
• When compared with H5N1 viruses from 1997 and early 2004, H5N1 viruses now circulating are more lethal to experimentally infected mice and to ferrets (a mammalian model) and survive longer in the environment.
• H5N1 appears to have expanded its host range, infecting and killing mammalian species previously considered resistant to infection with avian influenza viruses.
• The behaviour of the virus in its natural reservoir, wild waterfowl, may be changing. The spring 2005 die-off of upwards of 6,000 migratory birds at a nature reserve in central China, caused by highly pathogenic H5N1, was highly unusual and probably unprecedented. In the past, only two large die-offs in migratory birds, caused by highly pathogenic viruses, are known to have occurred: in South Africa in 1961 (H5N3) and in Hong Kong in the winter of 2002–2003 (H5N1).
Why are pandemics such dreaded events?
Influenza pandemics are remarkable events that can rapidly infect virtually all countries. Once international spread begins, pandemics are considered unstoppable, caused as they are by a virus that spreads very rapidly by coughing or sneezing. The fact that infected people can shed virus before symptoms appear adds to the risk of international spread via asymptomatic air travellers.
The severity of disease and the number of deaths caused by a pandemic virus vary greatly, and cannot be known prior to the emergence of the virus. During past pandemics, attack rates reached 25-35% of the total population. Under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths (projected from data obtained during the 1957 pandemic). Projections for a more virulent virus are much higher. The 1918 pandemic, which was exceptional, killed at least 40 million people. In the USA, the mortality rate during that pandemic was around 2.5%.
Pandemics can cause large surges in the numbers of people requiring or seeking medical or hospital treatment, temporarily overwhelming health services. High rates of worker absenteeism can also interrupt other essential services, such as law enforcement, transportation, and communications. Because populations will be fully susceptible to an H5N1-like virus, rates of illness could peak fairly rapidly within a given community. This means that local social and economic disruptions may be temporary. They may, however, be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Based on past experience, a second wave of global spread should be anticipated within a year.
As all countries are likely to experience emergency conditions during a pandemic, opportunities for inter-country assistance, as seen during natural disasters or localized disease outbreaks, may be curtailed once international spread has begun and governments focus on protecting domestic populations.
What are the most important warning signals that a pandemic is about to start?
The most important warning signal comes when clusters of patients with clinical symptoms of influenza, closely related in time and place, are detected, as this suggests human-to-human transmission is taking place. For similar reasons, the detection of cases in health workers caring for H5N1 patients would suggest human-to-human transmission. Detection of such events should be followed by immediate field investigation of every possible case to confirm the diagnosis, identify the source, and determine whether human-to-human transmission is occurring.
Studies of viruses, conducted by specialized WHO reference laboratories, can corroborate field investigations by spotting genetic and other changes in the virus indicative of an improved ability to infect humans. This is why WHO repeatedly asks affected countries to share viruses with the international research community.
What is the status of vaccine development and production?
Vaccines effective against a pandemic virus are not yet available. Vaccines are produced each year for seasonal influenza but will not protect against pandemic influenza. Although a vaccine against the H5N1 virus is under development in several countries, no vaccine is ready for commercial production and no vaccines are expected to be widely available until several months after the start of a pandemic.
Some clinical trials are now under way to test whether experimental vaccines will be fully protective and to determine whether different formulations can economize on the amount of antigen required, thus boosting production capacity. Because the vaccine needs to closely match the pandemic virus, large-scale commercial production will not start until the new virus has emerged and a pandemic has been declared. Current global production capacity falls far short of the demand expected during a pandemic.
What drugs are available for treatment?
Two drugs (in the neuraminidase inhibitors class), oseltamivir (commercially known as Tamiflu) and zanamivir (commercially known as Relenza) can reduce the severity and duration of illness caused by seasonal influenza. The efficacy of the neuraminidase inhibitors depends, among others, on their early administration ( within 48 hours after symptom onset). For cases of human infection with H5N1, the drugs may improve prospects of survival, if administered early, but clinical data are limited. The H5N1 virus is expected to be susceptible to the neuraminidase inhibitors. Antiviral resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors has been clinically negligible so far but is likely to be detected during widespread use during a pandemic.
An older class of antiviral drugs, the M2 inhibitors amantadine and rimantadine, could potentially be used against pandemic influenza, but resistance to these drugs can develop rapidly and this could significantly limit their effectiveness against pandemic influenza. Some currently circulating H5N1 strains are fully resistant to these the M2 inhibitors. However, should a new virus emerge through reassortment, the M2 inhibitors might be effective.
For the neuraminidase inhibitors, the main constraints – which are substantial – involve limited production capacity and a price that is prohibitively high for many countries. At present manufacturing capacity, which has recently quadrupled, it will take a decade to produce enough oseltamivir to treat 20% of the world’s population. The manufacturing process for oseltamivir is complex and time-consuming, and is not easily transferred to other facilities.
So far, most fatal pneumonia seen in cases of H5N1 infection has resulted from the effects of the virus, and cannot be treated with antibiotics. Nonetheless, since influenza is often complicated by secondary bacterial infection of the lungs, antibiotics could be life-saving in the case of late-ons

28 février 2006 à 23:47:15
Réponse #12

Ancien forum



Posté par CAMP

What is avian influenza?
Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals caused by viruses that normally infect only birds and, less commonly, pigs. Avian influenza viruses are highly species-specific, but have, on rare occasions, crossed the species barrier to infect humans.
In domestic poultry, infection with avian influenza viruses causes two main forms of disease, distinguished by low and high extremes of virulence. The so-called “low pathogenic” form commonly causes only mild symptoms (ruffled feathers, a drop in egg production) and may easily go undetected. The highly pathogenic form is far more dramatic. It spreads very rapidly through poultry flocks, causes disease affecting multiple internal organs, and has a mortality that can approach 100%, often within 48 hours.
Which viruses cause highly pathogenic disease?
Influenza A viruses1 have 16 H subtypes and 9 N subtypes2. Only viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes are known to cause the highly pathogenic form of the disease. However, not all viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes are highly pathogenic and not all will cause severe disease in poultry.
On present understanding, H5 and H7 viruses are introduced to poultry flocks in their low pathogenic form. When allowed to circulate in poultry populations, the viruses can mutate, usually within a few months, into the highly pathogenic form. This is why the presence of an H5 or H7 virus in poultry is always cause for concern, even when the initial signs of infection are mild.
Do migratory birds spread highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses?
The role of migratory birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza is not fully understood. Wild waterfowl are considered the natural reservoir of all influenza A viruses. They have probably carried influenza viruses, with no apparent harm, for centuries. They are known to carry viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes, but usually in the low pathogenic form. Considerable circumstantial evidence suggests that migratory birds can introduce low pathogenic H5 and H7 viruses to poultry flocks, which then mutate to the highly pathogenic form.
In the past, highly pathogenic viruses have been isolated from migratory birds on very rare occasions involving a few birds, usually found dead within the flight range of a poultry outbreak. This finding long suggested that wild waterfowl are not agents for the onward transmission of these viruses.
Recent events make it likely that some migratory birds are now directly spreading the H5N1 virus in its highly pathogenic form. Further spread to new areas is expected.
What is special about the current outbreaks in poultry?
The current outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which began in South-east Asia in mid-2003, are the largest and most severe on record. Never before in the history of this disease have so many countries been simultaneously affected, resulting in the loss of so many birds.
The causative agent, the H5N1 virus, has proved to be especially tenacious. Despite the death or destruction of an estimated 150 million birds, the virus is now considered endemic in many parts of Indonesia and Viet Nam and in some parts of Cambodia, China, Thailand, and possibly also the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Control of the disease in poultry is expected to take several years.
The H5N1 virus is also of particular concern for human health, as explained below.
Which countries have been affected by outbreaks in poultry?
From mid-December 2003 through early February 2004, poultry outbreaks caused by the H5N1 virus were reported in eight Asian nations (listed in order of reporting): the Republic of Korea, Viet Nam, Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Indonesia, and China. Most of these countries had never before experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in their histories.
In early August 2004, Malaysia reported its first outbreak of H5N1 in poultry, becoming the ninth Asian nation affected. Russia reported its first H5N1 outbreak in poultry in late July 2005, followed by reports of disease in adjacent parts of Kazakhstan in early August. Deaths of wild birds from highly pathogenic H5N1 were reported in both countries. Almost simultaneously, Mongolia reported the detection of H5N1 in dead migratory birds. In October 2005, H5N1 was confirmed in poultry in Turkey and Romania. Outbreaks in wild and domestic birds are under investigation elsewhere.
Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia have announced control of their poultry outbreaks and are now considered free of the disease. In the other affected areas, outbreaks are continuing with varying degrees of severity.
What are the implications for human health?
The widespread persistence of H5N1 in poultry populations poses two main risks for human health.
The first is the risk of direct infection when the virus passes from poultry to humans, resulting in very severe disease. Of the few avian influenza viruses that have crossed the species barrier to infect humans, H5N1 has caused the largest number of cases of severe disease and death in humans. Unlike normal seasonal influenza, where infection causes only mild respiratory symptoms in most people, the disease caused by H5N1 follows an unusually aggressive clinical course, with rapid deterioration and high fatality. Primary viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure are common. In the present outbreak, more than half of those infected with the virus have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults.
A second risk, of even greater concern, is that the virus – if given enough opportunities – will change into a form that is highly infectious for humans and spreads easily from person to person. Such a change could mark the start of a global outbreak (a pandemic).
Where have human cases occurred?
In the current outbreak, laboratory-confirmed human cases have been reported in four countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Hong Kong has experienced two outbreaks in the past. In 1997, in the first recorded instance of human infection with H5N1, the virus infected 18 people and killed 6 of them. In early 2003, the virus caused two infections, with one death, in a Hong Kong family with a recent travel history to southern China.
How do people become infected?
Direct contact with infected poultry, or surfaces and objects contaminated by their faeces, is presently considered the main route of human infection. To date, most human cases have occurred in rural or periurban areas where many households keep small poultry flocks, which often roam freely, sometimes entering homes or sharing outdoor areas where children play. As infected birds shed large quantities of virus in their faeces, opportunities for exposure to infected droppings or to environments contaminated by the virus are abundant under such conditions. Moreover, because many households in Asia depend on poultry for income and food, many families sell or slaughter and consume birds when signs of illness appear in a flock, and this practice has proved difficult to change. Exposure is considered most likely during slaughter, defeathering, butchering, and preparation of poultry for cooking.
Is it safe to eat poultry and poultry products?
Yes, though certain precautions should be followed in countries currently experiencing outbreaks. In areas free of the disease, poultry and poultry products can be prepared and consumed as usual (following good hygienic practices and proper cooking), with no fear of acquiring infection with the H5N1 virus.
In areas experiencing outbreaks, poultry and poultry products can also be safely consumed provided these items are properly cooked and properly handled during food preparation. The H5N1 virus is sensitive to heat. Normal temperatures used for cooking (70oC in all parts of the food) will kill the virus. Consumers need to be sure that all parts of the poultry are fully cooked (no “pink” parts) and that eggs, too, are properly cooked (no “runny” yolks).
Consumers should also be aware of the risk of cross-contamination. Juices from raw poultry and poultry products should never be allowed, during food preparation, to touch or mix with items eaten raw. When handling raw poultry or raw poultry products, persons involved in food preparation should wash their hands thoroughly and clean and disinfect surfaces in contact with the poultry products Soap and hot water are sufficient for this purpose.
In areas experiencing outbreaks in poultry, raw eggs should not be used in foods that will not be further heat-treated as, for example by cooking or baking.
Avian influenza is not transmitted through cooked food. To date, no evidence indicates that anyone has become infected following the consumption of properly cooked poultry or poultry products, even when these foods were contaminated with the H5N1 virus.
Does the virus spread easily from birds to humans?
No. Though more than 100 human cases have occurred in the current outbreak, this is a small number compared with the huge number of birds affected and the numerous associated opportunities for human exposure, especially in areas where backyard flocks are common. It is not presently understood why some people, and not others, become infected following similar exposures.
What about the pandemic risk?
A pandemic can start when three conditions have been met: a new influenza virus subtype emerges; it infects humans, causing serious illness; and it spreads easily and sustainably among humans. The H5N1 virus amply meets the first two conditions: it is a new virus for humans (H5N1 viruses have never circulated widely among people), and it has infected more than 100 humans, killing over half of them. No one will have immunity should an H5N1-like pandemic virus emerge.
All prerequisites for the start of a pandemic have therefore been met save one: the establishment of efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus. The risk that the H5N1 virus will acquire this ability will persist as long as opportunities for human infections occur. These opportunities, in turn, will persist as long as the virus continues to circulate in birds, and this situation could endure for some years to come.
What changes are needed for H5N1 to become a pandemic virus?
The virus can improve its transmissibility among humans via two principal mechanisms. The first is a “reassortment” event, in which genetic material is exchanged between human and avian viruses during co-infection of a human or pig. Reassortment could result in a fully transmissible pandemic virus, announced by a sudden surge of cases with explosive spread.
The second mechanism is a more gradual process of adaptive mutation, whereby the capability of the virus to bind to human cells increases during subsequent infections of humans. Adaptive mutation, expressed initially as small clusters of human cases with some evidence of human-to-human transmission, would probably give the world some time to take defensive action.
What is the significance of limited human-to-human transmission?
Though rare, instances of limited human-to-human transmission of H5N1 and other avian influenza viruses have occurred in association with outbreaks in poultry and should not be a cause for alarm. In no instance has the virus spread beyond a first generation of close contacts or caused illness in the general community. Data from these incidents suggest that transmission requires very close contact with an ill person. Such incidents must be thoroughly investigated but – provided the investigation indicates that transmission from person to person is very limited – such incidents will not change the WHO overall assessment of the pandemic risk. There have been a number of instances of avian influenza infection occurring among close family members. It is often impossible to determine if human-to-human transmission has occurred since the family members are exposed to the same animal and environmental sources as well as to one another.
How serious is the current pandemic risk?
The risk of pandemic influenza is serious. With the H5N1 virus now firmly entrenched in large parts of Asia, the risk that more human cases will occur will persist. Each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to improve its transmissibility in humans, and thus develop into a pandemic strain. The recent spread of the virus to poultry and wild birds in new areas further broadens opportunities for human cases to occur. While neither the timing nor the severity of the next pandemic can be predicted, the probability that a pandemic will occur has increased.
Are there any other causes for concern?
Yes. Several.
• Domestic ducks can now excrete large quantities of highly pathogenic virus without showing signs of illness, and are now acting as a “silent” reservoir of the virus, perpetuating transmission to other birds. This adds yet another layer of complexity to control efforts and removes the warning signal for humans to avoid risky behaviours.
• When compared with H5N1 viruses from 1997 and early 2004, H5N1 viruses now circulating are more lethal to experimentally infected mice and to ferrets (a mammalian model) and survive longer in the environment.
• H5N1 appears to have expanded its host range, infecting and killing mammalian species previously considered resistant to infection with avian influenza viruses.
• The behaviour of the virus in its natural reservoir, wild waterfowl, may be changing. The spring 2005 die-off of upwards of 6,000 migratory birds at a nature reserve in central China, caused by highly pathogenic H5N1, was highly unusual and probably unprecedented. In the past, only two large die-offs in migratory birds, caused by highly pathogenic viruses, are known to have occurred: in South Africa in 1961 (H5N3) and in Hong Kong in the winter of 2002–2003 (H5N1).
Why are pandemics such dreaded events?
Influenza pandemics are remarkable events that can rapidly infect virtually all countries. Once international spread begins, pandemics are considered unstoppable, caused as they are by a virus that spreads very rapidly by coughing or sneezing. The fact that infected people can shed virus before symptoms appear adds to the risk of international spread via asymptomatic air travellers.
The severity of disease and the number of deaths caused by a pandemic virus vary greatly, and cannot be known prior to the emergence of the virus. During past pandemics, attack rates reached 25-35% of the total population. Under the best circumstances, assuming that the new virus causes mild disease, the world could still experience an estimated 2 million to 7.4 million deaths (projected from data obtained during the 1957 pandemic). Projections for a more virulent virus are much higher. The 1918 pandemic, which was exceptional, killed at least 40 million people. In the USA, the mortality rate during that pandemic was around 2.5%.
Pandemics can cause large surges in the numbers of people requiring or seeking medical or hospital treatment, temporarily overwhelming health services. High rates of worker absenteeism can also interrupt other essential services, such as law enforcement, transportation, and communications. Because populations will be fully susceptible to an H5N1-like virus, rates of illness could peak fairly rapidly within a given community. This means that local social and economic disruptions may be temporary. They may, however, be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Based on past experience, a second wave of global spread should be anticipated within a year.
As all countries are likely to experience emergency conditions during a pandemic, opportunities for inter-country assistance, as seen during natural disasters or localized disease outbreaks, may be curtailed once international spread has begun and governments focus on protecting domestic populations.
What are the most important warning signals that a pandemic is about to start?
The most important warning signal comes when clusters of patients with clinical symptoms of influenza, closely related in time and place, are detected, as this suggests human-to-human transmission is taking place. For similar reasons, the detection of cases in health workers caring for H5N1 patients would suggest human-to-human transmission. Detection of such events should be followed by immediate field investigation of every possible case to confirm the diagnosis, identify the source, and determine whether human-to-human transmission is occurring.
Studies of viruses, conducted by specialized WHO reference laboratories, can corroborate field investigations by spotting genetic and other changes in the virus indicative of an improved ability to infect humans. This is why WHO repeatedly asks affected countries to share viruses with the international research community.
What is the status of vaccine development and production?
Vaccines effective against a pandemic virus are not yet available. Vaccines are produced each year for seasonal influenza but will not protect against pandemic influenza. Although a vaccine against the H5N1 virus is under development in several countries, no vaccine is ready for commercial production and no vaccines are expected to be widely available until several months after the start of a pandemic.
Some clinical trials are now under way to test whether experimental vaccines will be fully protective and to determine whether different formulations can economize on the amount of antigen required, thus boosting production capacity. Because the vaccine needs to closely match the pandemic virus, large-scale commercial production will not start until the new virus has emerged and a pandemic has been declared. Current global production capacity falls far short of the demand expected during a pandemic.
What drugs are available for treatment?
Two drugs (in the neuraminidase inhibitors class), oseltamivir (commercially known as Tamiflu) and zanamivir (commercially known as Relenza) can reduce the severity and duration of illness caused by seasonal influenza. The efficacy of the neuraminidase inhibitors depends, among others, on their early administration ( within 48 hours after symptom onset). For cases of human infection with H5N1, the drugs may improve prospects of survival, if administered early, but clinical data are limited. The H5N1 virus is expected to be susceptible to the neuraminidase inhibitors. Antiviral resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors has been clinically negligible so far but is likely to be detected during widespread use during a pandemic.
An older class of antiviral drugs, the M2 inhibitors amantadine and rimantadine, could potentially be used against pandemic influenza, but resistance to these drugs can develop rapidly and this could significantly limit their effectiveness against pandemic influenza. Some currently circulating H5N1 strains are fully resistant to these the M2 inhibitors. However, should a new virus emerge through reassortment, the M2 inhibitors might be effective.
For the neuraminidase inhibitors, the main constraints – which are substantial – involve limited production capacity and a price that is prohibitively high for many countries. At present manufacturing capacity, which has recently quadrupled, it will take a decade to produce enough oseltamivir to treat 20% of the world’s population. The manufacturing process for oseltamivir is complex and time-consuming, and is not easily transferred to other facilities.
So far, most fatal pneumonia seen in cases of H5N1 infection has resulted from the effects of the virus, and cannot be treated with antibiotics. Nonetheless, since influenza is often complicated by secondary bacterial infection of the lungs, antibiotics could be life-saving in the case of late-onset pneumonia. WHO regards it

28 février 2006 à 23:48:13
Réponse #13

Ancien forum



Posté par CAMP

Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza

1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.
Avian influenza refers to a large group of different influenza viruses that primarily affect birds. On rare occasions, these bird viruses can infect other species, including pigs and humans. The vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect humans. An influenza pandemic happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated in humans.
For this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Once this adaptation occurs, it will no longer be a bird virus--it will be a human influenza virus. Influenza pandemics are caused by new influenza viruses that have adapted to humans.
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.
An influenza pandemic is a rare but recurrent event. Three pandemics occurred in the previous century: “Spanish influenza” in 1918, “Asian influenza” in 1957, and “Hong Kong influenza” in 1968. The 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 40–50 million people worldwide. That pandemic, which was exceptional, is considered one of the deadliest disease events in human history. Subsequent pandemics were much milder, with an estimated 2 million deaths in 1957 and 1 million deaths in 1968.
A pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges and starts spreading as easily as normal influenza – by coughing and sneezing. Because the virus is new, the human immune system will have no pre-existing immunity. This makes it likely that people who contract pandemic influenza will experience more serious disease than that caused by normal influenza.
3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.
Health experts have been monitoring a new and extremely severe influenza virus – the H5N1 strain – for almost eight years. The H5N1 strain first infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997, causing 18 cases, including six deaths. Since mid-2003, this virus has caused the largest and most severe outbreaks in poultry on record. In December 2003, infections in people exposed to sick birds were identified.
Since then, over 100 human cases have been laboratory confirmed in four Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam), and more than half of these people have died. Most cases have occurred in previously healthy children and young adults. Fortunately, the virus does not jump easily from birds to humans or spread readily and sustainably among humans. Should H5N1 evolve to a form as contagious as normal influenza, a pandemic could begin.
4. All countries will be affected.
Once a fully contagious virus emerges, its global spread is considered inevitable. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it. The pandemics of the previous century encircled the globe in 6 to 9 months, even when most international travel was by ship. Given the speed and volume of international air travel today, the virus could spread more rapidly, possibly reaching all continents in less than 3 months.

28 février 2006 à 23:50:33
Réponse #14

Ancien forum



Posté par CAMP

5. Widespread illness will occur.
Because most people will have no immunity to the pandemic virus, infection and illness rates are expected to be higher than during seasonal epidemics of normal influenza. Current projections for the next pandemic estimate that a substantial percentage of the world’s population will require some form of medical care. Few countries have the staff, facilities, equipment, and hospital beds needed to cope with large numbers of people who suddenly fall ill.
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate.
Supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs – the two most important medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during a pandemic – will be inadequate in all countries at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter. Inadequate supplies of vaccines are of particular concern, as vaccines are considered the first line of defence for protecting populations. On present trends, many developing countries will have no access to vaccines throughout the duration of a pandemic.
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.
Historically, the number of deaths during a pandemic has varied greatly. Death rates are largely determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations, and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Accurate predictions of mortality cannot be made before the pandemic virus emerges and begins to spread. All estimates of the number of deaths are purely speculative.
WHO has used a relatively conservative estimate – from 2 million to 7.4 million deaths – because it provides a useful and plausible planning target. This estimate is based on the comparatively mild 1957 pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one seen in 1918, have been made and are much higher. However, the 1918 pandemic was considered exceptional.
8. Economic and social disruption will be great.
High rates of illness and worker absenteeism are expected, and these will contribute to social and economic disruption. Past pandemics have spread globally in two and sometimes three waves. Not all parts of the world or of a single country are expected to be severely affected at the same time. Social and economic disruptions could be temporary, but may be amplified in today’s closely interrelated and interdependent systems of trade and commerce. Social disruption may be greatest when rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power, transportation, and communications.
9. Every country must be prepared.
WHO has issued a series of recommended strategic actions for responding to the influenza pandemic threat. The actions are designed to provide different layers of defence that reflect the complexity of the evolving situation. Recommended actions are different for the present phase of pandemic alert, the emergence of a pandemic virus, and the declaration of a pandemic and its subsequent international spread.
10. *** will alert the world when the pandemic threat increases.
*** works closely with ministries of health and various public health organizations to support countries' surveillance of circulating influenza strains. A sensitive surveillance system that can detect emerging influenza strains is essential for the rapid detection of a pandemic virus.
Six distinct phases have been defined to facilitate pandemic preparedness planning, with roles defined for governments, industry, and ***. The present situation is categorized as phase 3: a virus new to humans is causing infections, but does not spread easily from one person to another.

 :(

01 mars 2006 à 09:35:34
Réponse #15

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Posté par La fille

Ouaou camp, c'est super long ce que tu nous balances là....j'y reviendrai plus tard...

En attendant, merci David pour tes conseils! Ca me met la puce à l'oreille tout ça, et ça gratte terriblement... Je vais commencer des petits stocks (ça me fait halluciner moi même de dire ça...la vie était tellement plus naïve avant de rencontrer le forum)...

Contrairement à Survialfred, je serai plutôt d'avis de diffuser la probable nécessité de faire des stocks plutôt que de se cacher...

J'ai pas envie de psychoter mais j'avoue avoir quelque peu les chocottes!!

Ciao

Lucile

01 mars 2006 à 10:03:17
Réponse #16

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Posté par Pierrot

Je crois que la vie naïve ne va pas tarder à avoir du plomb dans l'aile.  ;D

Mais le fait d'être "prêts" pour autant qu'on puisse l'être nous permettra tout de même d'envisager l'avenir avec un peu plus de serénité.

Pour ce qui est des réserves, il faut dire à ses voisins d'en faire et à mon avis faire les sienne discrètement. Connaissant la nature humaine, il ne faut pas claironner qu'on a de quoi tenir six mois car c'est sur qu'on va être catalogué fournisseur et qu'il faudra se fâcher à la fin.

J'ai vraiment l'impression que cette fois ça va être sèrieux et pourtant je ne suis du genre à m'affoler rapidement.

j'espère me tromper.....

01 mars 2006 à 10:44:45
Réponse #17

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Posté par Pierrot

Et ça va peut être enfin décider les pouvoirs publics à débarrasser les villes des pigeons qui sont un véritable réservoir à saloperies et qui trimballent toutes sortes de maladies transmissibles à l'homme dont on parle peu et qui affectent notament les voies respiratoires.

01 mars 2006 à 10:59:19
Réponse #18

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Posté par Maximil

Euh dis moi si je me trompe, mais qui a le plus le droit d'être là à ton avis: les hommes ou les pigeons ?
Les pigeons font leurs excrément un peu partout (va donc essayer de leur faire faire dans les caniveaux  ;D), mais ils ne bousillent pas la planète eux, ne décrètent pas que les humains ne doivent plus avoir de nourriture parcequ'ils font chier leur monde, les pigeons ne plantent pas des barres d'acier aiguisé pour que les humains n'aillent plus dans les forêts y foutre le feu etc...
On était bien content des les trouver ces pigeons pendant les guerres pour le manger, ou faire passer des infos. Et maintenant faut les foutre dehors des villes ? La prochaine étape c'est quoi ? les chats ? Et ensuite les chiens ? Et puis on ferait aussi des zones sans gosses parceque ca fait du bruit, ca casse des trucs et ce n'est pas forcément propre ? Ensuite ca sera les cons, les chauves, les gros, les noirs, les marginaux, les asiatiques etc...etc... ?
Nan excuse moi mais si les villes devaient se débarrasser de quelque chose, ca serait d'abord des conn*rds qui les composent plutôt que des pigeons.
Réguler parfois oui, se débarrasser non

01 mars 2006 à 11:19:28
Réponse #19

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Posté par Pierrot

Ben mon colon, je savais pas que tu étais amoureux des pigeons à ce point!

Quoi qu'il en soit je persiste à dire que les pigeons en nombre très important et en liberté sont un vecteur de maladies, notament d'infections pulmonaires et qu'une forte diminution de leur nombre ne serait pas un mal.

Quant au reste, ma femme est asiatique, j'ai une fille, des amis marginaux, j'ai eu un chien,des chats et des chevaux, et si je suis un c*****d des villes actuellement c'est par obligations professionnelles, mon "vrai " domicile se trouvant dans l'Aude en pleine campagne.

Ps : tu essaieras de faire porter un message par un pigeon "sauvage" Parisien. Quant à les manger, ils sont généralement pourris de vers qui leur percent même les tripes, quand tu en ouvres un t'as plus faim.

Cordialement.

01 mars 2006 à 11:38:36
Réponse #20

Ancien forum



Posté par Maximil

Tu as écrit :
Citation de: Pierrot link=1141156949/15#17 date=1141206285
à débarrasser les villes des pigeons .
J'ai répondu :
Citer
Réguler parfois oui, se débarrasser non
Puis tu as réécrit :
Citer
qu'une forte diminution de leur nombre ne serait pas un mal
On va finir par être d'accord si tu continues ...  ;)


Citer
Ps : tu essaieras de faire porter un message par un pigeon "sauvage" Parisien. Quant à les manger, ils sont généralement pourris de vers qui leur percent même les tripes, quand tu en ouvres un t'as plus faim.  
Pendant la seconde guerre mondiale, il y a des histoires avec des pigeons parisiens...
Quant au fait de les manger, si c'est çà ou crever de faim...
Et puis ca reste des animaux, il ne faut pas l'oublier !
Beaucoup de maladies transportées par le pigeon proviennent de la connerie des hommes: par exemple grâce au macadam
Cordialement aussi, je t'en prie  ;) ;D

01 mars 2006 à 11:40:39
Réponse #21

Ancien forum



Posté par EH

Le pigeon, c'est un peu le revers de la médaille de notre civilisation urbaine.
Il y a quelques espèces comme ça qui se sont si bien habituées à nos villes que ça en devient une plaie.
Malgré tout il y a moins de contamination pas les oiseaux que par les gamins dans une école ou bien dans un supermarché. De la à prendre des mesures radicales  .....  ;D
Nous sommes nos propres vecteurs de maladie, ne l'oublions pas. Sans compter que nous prennons sans vergogne toute la place disponnible sans nous soucier des autres espèces alors, les pigeons pour nous, c'est un peu ce que nous faisons subir à la nature ::)  ...

Ouais, j'arrête le café au boulot dès le matin, ça me réussit pas.   [smiley=2vrolijk_08.gif]

Bon, je lirai l'article de Camp avec attention un plus tard, mais je comprends que des pates et quelques packs d'eau en plus ne ferons pas de mal au cas ou ....  :)
Comme La fille, le monde était vachement beau et gentil avant que je ne fréquente le forum.
Comme quoi, tout est une question de perception (chamanique) des choses ...

 ;)

Patrick, fait péter une pomme de plus   [smiley=beer.gif]

01 mars 2006 à 13:19:01
Réponse #22

Ancien forum



Posté par La fille

Trois mois de cocooning... en tant qu'herbivore féroce, j'ai toujours peur de manquer de légumes...

J'ai relu le bouquin de Terre Vivante "Conserves Naturelles" et il y a beaucoup de manière de conserver des légumes sur le long terme, heureusement. Je vais enfin passer à la pratique: des courges pour décorer, des carottes, des pommes de terre et des pommes à la cave dans des cageots, des choux en choucroute, etc.

 Pour les pâtes, le riz et les aliments secs c'est facile de les stocker mais le reste, les vitamines. Comment comptez vous faire?

Ciao les survivors

Lucile

01 mars 2006 à 13:23:09
Réponse #23

Ancien forum



Posté par EH

A moins de ne vouloir que du naturel, tu peux toujours prendre ton lot de vitamines en pharmacie comme compléments alimentaires, non ?

 ;)

01 mars 2006 à 13:25:44
Réponse #24

Ancien forum



Posté par La fille

Citer
A moins de ne vouloir que du naturel, tu peux toujours prendre ton lot de vitamines en pharmacie comme compléments alimentaires, non ?

C'est sûr, mais trois mois à ce rythme là et tu ressembles à un.... légume.... ;D

 


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